North central regional profile

              North Central
R
egional Profile
June 2011
Policy, Research & Economic Analysis
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KayGrantNoblePayneOsagePawneeLincolnLoganCounty BorderMetropolitan Statistical AreaCounty SeatCities with population over 5,000Cities with population 2,000 - 5,000Career Technology CentersHigher EducationCSources: Cities - U.S. Census Bureau - 2010 Census www.okcommerce.gov/data Career Technology Centers - OK Dept. of Career and Technology Education www.okcareertech.orgHigher Education - OK State Regents For Higher Education www.okhighered.orgFor a detailed interactive map showing lakes, roads, rail, hospitals and more cities, go to:http://stateok.zoomprospector.com/PawneeTulsaBlackwellPonca CityTonkawaHominyPawhuskaSkiatookClevelandStillwaterCushingPerryCCMeridianTechnologyCenterPioneer TechnologyCenterOklahoma StateUniversityNorthern OklahomaCollegeChandlerGuthrieLangston UniversityNorthern OklahomaCollegeUniversity Center atPonca CityCrescentMedfordNewkirkPawneePerkinsPragueStroudPawnee NationCollegePolicy, Research & Economic Analysis
NORTH CENTRAL REGIONAL PROFILE
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POPULATION GROWTH RATES: 1990 TO 2015
• In 2010, the population in this 8 county region totaled 280,170 people, representing 7.5% of the state’s total population
• On average the region’s population has grown at an annual 0.8% rate over the last decade
• In 2004, the region’s growth rate briefly dipped below zero before returning to positive territory
• Between 2000 and 2010, 23 counties in Oklahoma experienced a net population decline, 3 of those counties in this region
• Logan and Payne counties had the 4th and 10th highest population growth rates in the state
• For more information on county level population growth since 1990, see Appendix 1
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division http://www.census.gov/popest/estimates.html P o l i c y , R e s e a r c h & E c o n o m i c A n a l y s i s
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• Growth was led by population increases in Logan and Payne counties
o Logan County added 7,924 people between 2000 and 2010
o Payne County added 9,160 people during the same time period
o That represented 84.2% of the region’s total population growth this past decade
KayGrantNoblePayneOsagePawneeLincolnLoganKEY2000 Population (259,878 people in NC Region)2010 Population (280,170 people in NC Region)Change: 6.8%300003100032000330003400035000Change: 6.8%400004200044000460004800050000Change: -0.2%120001320014400156001680018000Change: -3.2%400004300046000490005200055000Change: -12.0%1000280046006400820010000Change: 1.3%500070009000110001300015000Change: 23.4%300003220034400366003880041000Change: 13.4%6000064000680007200076000800002000Pawnee (16,612 people)13.1%12.3%6.4%Noble 4.4% (11,411 people)Logan (33,924 people)Kay(48,080 people)Lincoln (32,080 people)Osage(44,437 people)Grant 2.0% (5,144 people)Payne(68,190 people)17.1%18.5%26.2%2010Pawnee (16,577 people)14.9%12.2%5.9%Noble 4.1% (11,561 people)Logan (41,848people)Kay(46,562 people)Lincoln (34,273 people)Osage(47,472 people)Grant 1.6% (4,527 people)Payne(77,350 people)16.9%16.6%27.6%Source: U.S. Census Bureau - 2010 CensusP o l i c y , R e s e a r c h & E c o n o m i c A n a l y s i s
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AGE BY GENDER: 2010
• The presence of Oklahoma State University in Payne County moved the region’s population to a younger range
o The region showed larger populations in the age groups of 15 to 19 and 20 to 24
o This distribution was not typical in the other 7 counties as they trended towards older populations, with Grant County having a median age 9.6 years higher than the state median
• For more information on county level population by age group, see Appendix 2
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Demographic Profiles www.factfinder2.census.gov
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Demographic Profiles www.factfinder2.census.govP o l i c y , R e s e a r c h & E c o n o m i c A n a l y s i s
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RACIAL MIX: 2000 AND 2010
• The standard race categories used for Census purposes are white, black, American Indian or Alaska Native (AIAN), Asian, Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander (NHOPI), or some other race
• Hispanic is not considered a race but is instead an ethnicity – it is possible to be white and Hispanic, black and Hispanic, Asian and Hispanic, etc.
• Between 2000 and 2010, the region became slightly more racially diverse; however, the region remained strongly white alone when compared with the rest of the state
o Percent self described as white alone in 2010:
 Region: 79.5%
 OK: 72.2%
• Most of the region’s increase in diversity came from growth among those self described as American Indian or Alaska Native, or those claiming more than one race
• American Indians remained the largest minority in this region, representing 7.7% of the region’s total population, slightly lower than the state’s average of 8.6%
• Blacks were the largest minority in Logan County representing 9.1% of the county’s total population.
• ‘More than one race’ represented the largest minority in Grant and Payne counties outnumbering those claiming to be black alone, American Indian alone and Hispanic alone.
• For more information on county level population by race, see Appendices 3 and 4
Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 Census www.factfinder2.census.gov
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Demographic Profiles
www.factfinder2.census.govP o l i c y , R e s e a r c h & E c o n o m i c A n a l y s i s
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HISPANIC ETHNICITY: 2000 AND 2010
• The region’s Hispanic population grew, but remained below the state and national percentages
• Kay County had the region’s highest Hispanic presence in 2010 with 2,992 people of that ethnicity, or 6.4% of the county’s population
• Payne County had slightly fewer Hispanics than Kay County (2,990 or 3.9%)
• Pawnee County had the lowest percentage of Hispanics in the region (2.0%, or 336)
• Grant County had the lowest number of Hispanics in the region (158, or 3.5%)
• While the region had a lower presence of Hispanics by percentage, it had a higher percentage growth rate than was shown by the US as a whole
• For more information on county level population by Hispanic ethnicity, see Appendix 5
Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Census www.factfinder2.census.gov
Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Census www.factfinder2.census.gov P o l i c y , R e s e a r c h & E c o n o m i c A n a l y s i s
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EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT: 2005 - 2009
yyOnly Payne County exceeded the national estimate for the percentage of the population with a bachelor’s degree or higher at 32.5% (+/- 1.8%)
yyAll eight counties exceeded the national estimate for the percentage of the population with some college education but no degree
o Region: 21.8% (+/-0.7%)
o US: 20.3% (+/-0.0%)
yyEducational attainment for a large part of the region stopped at either a high school degree or less than a high school degree
yyThe 2005-2009 American Community Survey is based on surveys collected during the full 5 year span and results are considered to be representative of the complete time period
yyFor more information on county level population by educational attainment, see Appendix 6
Source: US Census Bureau, 2005-2009 American Community Survey 5 Year Data Set www.factfinder.census.gov
Source: US Census Bureau, 2005-2009 American Community Survey 5 Year Data Set
www.factfinder.census.govP o l i c y , R e s e a r c h & E c o n o m i c A n a l y s i s
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PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME: 1990 TO 2009
• Per Capita Personal Income (PCPI) for the nation, state and region steadily climbed upward until 2009 when the impact of the global recession caused wages to decline
o 2009 PCPI:
 US: $39,635
 OK: $35,837
 Region: $32,084
• Collectively, PCPI in the region trended below the statewide PCPI with some exceptions
• Grant County exceeded the state’s PCPI in 2009 ($36,273)
• While dropping below the state PCPI in 2009, Kay and Logan counties exceeded the state PCPI as recently as 2008
o 2008:
 Kay: $37,877
 Logan: $37,009
 OK: $36,911
o 2009:
 Kay: $35,915
 Logan: $35,052
 OK: $39,635
• For more information on PCPI, see Appendix 7
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
http://www.bea.gov/regional/reis/default.cfm?selTable=CA1-3§ion=2
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.bea.gov/regional/reis/default.cfm?selTable=CA1-3§ion=2 P o l i c y , R e s e a r c h & E c o n o m i c A n a l y s i s
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ESTIMATED RETAIL: 2004 TO 2010
• Retail sales figures used here are based on a summation of calendar month data as reported by the Oklahoma Tax Commission
• Because those data are subject to a reporting time lag, these figures are considered estimates
• Figures represent estimated sales subject to sales tax, thus sales to governments, non-profits, and other non-taxable entities are not included in these figures
• Changes in retail sales could be due to:
o The introduction or removal of a local sales tax
o The increase or reduction of an existing sales tax
o Sharp upswings or downturns in economic conditions
o The opening or closing of a significant retail establishment like
 A big-box retailer
 A large shopping mall
2004-2010 Estimated Retail Sales Subject to Sales Tax
For 20 Largest Communities Based on 2010 Population
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
KAY
Blackwell
51,028,098
51,929,196
52,525,592
55,552,549
60,071,521
57,917,759
57,164,572
Newkirk
11,140,811
11,636,232
11,823,142
12,756,966
13,276,447
12,667,385
12,231,360
Ponca City
324,901,988
334,813,578
344,102,192
363,198,983
361,247,802
341,359,116
347,557,085
Tonkawa
17,510,731
18,026,380
19,330,638
20,456,448
20,842,422
19,486,657
22,302,955
LINCOLN
Chandler
41,913,282
43,018,259
45,103,281
50,158,859
61,032,388
59,884,386
60,218,335
Prague
21,017,298
21,044,042
21,752,520
23,265,237
26,665,738
24,361,882
24,538,252
Stroud
26,934,096
29,122,709
31,849,474
32,925,183
37,404,302
36,200,442
35,908,125
LOGAN
Crescent
11,018,031
11,427,631
11,507,057
12,986,258
15,105,432
13,778,008
11,592,021
Guthrie
97,698,303
102,468,482
104,180,002
116,770,165
126,265,249
127,459,605
122,400,267
Langston
1,970,164
2,282,973
1,907,263
2,038,931
2,306,777
2,100,308
2,523,178
NOBLE
Perry
46,962,987
47,160,309
47,956,715
50,138,775
48,417,081
45,750,510
48,125,463
OSAGE
Hominy
13,566,012
15,198,940
17,348,955
16,832,996
19,598,811
18,156,182
17,764,822
Pawhuska
26,235,625
26,924,375
28,132,359
29,777,117
31,445,396
31,459,764
31,650,757
Skiatook
52,504,603
67,320,981
77,665,656
83,737,590
87,050,836
84,061,764
90,588,726
PAWNEE
Cleveland
35,666,323
37,069,960
36,253,355
39,838,023
42,238,820
39,747,184
42,067,231
Pawnee
16,762,897
16,711,586
18,322,136
18,821,869
17,869,917
17,574,563
18,412,440
PAYNE
Cushing
83,647,533
91,268,386
96,624,706
105,574,318
123,986,341
114,704,701
121,727,929
Drumright
18,269,710
19,445,948
20,116,844
26,933,674
24,231,953
21,090,910
20,342,622
Perkins
17,242,661
17,343,863
20,297,113
20,988,010
22,112,511
20,426,478
22,994,116
Stillwater
529,929,974
568,054,148
592,926,803
634,285,259
664,621,031
645,947,398
649,411,533
Source: Estimates Based on Oklahoma Tax Commission Data http://www.tax.ok.gov/nwsrls.htmlP o l i c y , R e s e a r c h & E c o n o m i c A n a l y s i s
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ESTIMATED RETAIL: 2004 TO 2010, Continued
• Collectively, retail sales had been trending upward until 2008, peaking at $1.91 billion for the region
• As the global recession spread in 2009, collective retail sales for the region dropped to $1.84 billion
• Retail sales rebounded somewhat in 2010, reaching $1.87 billion within the region
• The largest volume of retail sales occurred in population centers like Stillwater, Ponca City, Guthrie and Cushing
o These four communities accounted for two thirds of the region’s estimated retail sales volume in 2010
• For more information on local level sales tax collections and growth, see Appendices 8 and 9
Source: Estimates Based on Oklahoma Tax Commission Data http://www.tax.ok.gov/nwsrls.html P o l i c y , R e s e a r c h & E c o n o m i c A n a l y s i s
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INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT, ESTABLISHMENTS AND EARNINGS: 2010
• The following graphs use data from EMSI, which defines industry employment differently from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). BLS reports job counts only for establishments with an employer/employee relationship which excludes non-employer establishments like sole proprietorships and partnerships
• EMSI includes data from both employer AND non-employer establishments
• The North Central region had 5,746 establishments operating in 2010
• The region had a higher percentage of manufacturing and mining establishments than did the state or nation
• Retail, construction and government combined to equal one third of all establishments in the region in 2010
Source: EMSI Complete Employment – 2nd Quarter 2011 www.economicmodeling.comP o l i c y , R e s e a r c h & E c o n o m i c A n a l y s i s
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• Government was the leading employer in the region, at 21.4% of all jobs
o This includes federal, state, local, and tribal governments
o This also includes public education facilities
o The figure is ahead of the national average of 14.0% and the state average of 17.4%
Source: EMSI Complete Employment – 2nd Quarter 2011 www.economicmodeling.com
Source: EMSI Complete Employment – 2nd Quarter 2011 www.economicmodeling.comP o l i c y , R e s e a r c h & E c o n o m i c A n a l y s i s
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Source: EMSI Complete Employment – 2nd Quarter 2011 www.economicmodeling.com
Source: EMSI Complete Employment – 2nd Quarter 2011 www.economicmodeling.comP o l i c y , R e s e a r c h & E c o n o m i c A n a l y s i s
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INDUSTRY COMPETITIVENESS: 2010
• Industry Location Quotient (LQ) compares the following:
1. Changes in employment
2. For a given industry
3. During a given time period
4. In a given area, against another reference area
• A score of 1.0 or higher indicates competitive advantage
• The LQ chart compares industries at the 2 digit NAICS level for:
o Oklahoma and the 8 county region against the nation as a whole
o Based on 2010 data
• The region’s LQ score for government was increased by Tribal governments headquartered in the state
• Every county in the region showed a national competitive advantage in mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction, and agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting
• All but two (Noble and Pawnee) showed an advantage in construction
• Half had an advantage in utilities
• Additional competitive advantages at the county level
o Grant: Finance and insurance (1.31), transportation and warehousing (2.58), and wholesale trade (1.17)
o Kay: Administrative, support, waste management and remediation services (1.10), management of companies and enterprise (1.75), and manufacturing (1.04)
o Lincoln: Information (1.39) and transportation and warehousing (1.47)
o Logan: Arts, entertainment and recreation (1.19), other services except public administration (1.24), and real estate and rental and leasing (1.51)
o Noble: Manufacturing (2.58)
o Osage: Arts, entertainment and recreation (1.02)
o Pawnee: Health care and social assistance (1.04)
Source: EMSI Complete Employment – 2nd Quarter 2011 www.economicmodeling.comP o l i c y , R e s e a r c h & E c o n o m i c A n a l y s i s
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LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE: 1990 TO 2010
• The labor force participation rate is calculated by dividing the labor force by the total population
• The measure isn’t exact (because total population includes those unable to work due to age, health, or other issues) but inputs are consistent over time, thus the measure indicates trends
• The region’s labor force participation rate had been dropping since 2000, but the drop became more pronounced beginning in April 2007
• Declines were more pronounced in
 Lincoln: -6.2%
 Logan: -6.9%
 Payne: -7.2%
• In 2010, labor force participation rates were:
o US: 49.8%
o OK: 46.8%
o Region: 44.7%
o Grant: 58.6%
o Kay: 48.8%
o Osage: 41.1%
o Lincoln: 40.2%
o Pawnee: 43.9%
o Logan: 43.2%
o Payne: 45.9%
o Noble: 49.2%
Sources: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division www.census.gov/popest/counties/counties.html and US Bureau of Labor Statistics, www.bls.gov/lau/#tables
Sources: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division www.census.gov/popest/counties/counties.html and US Bureau of Labor Statistics, www.bls.gov/lau/#tablesP o l i c y , R e s e a r c h & E c o n o m i c A n a l y s i s
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UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 1990 TO 2010
• Over the last two decades, unemployment rates for the region have typically been near or below the state and national rates
• After the onset of the recent recession, unemployment rates rose sharply
• 2010 annualized unemployment rates:
o US: 9.6%
o OK: 7.1%
o Region: 7.3%
• In 2010, Grant County, with a relatively small population, had the lowest unemployment rate at 4.3%
• For more information on county level unemployment rates, see Appendix 10
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics www.bls.gov/lau/#tables
Sources: US unemployment data from US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey
http://data.bls.gov/pdq/querytool.jsp?survey=ln State and County unemployment data from US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics http://data.bls.gov/pdq/querytool.jsp?survey=laP o l i c y , R e s e a r c h & E c o n o m i c A n a l y s i s
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COMMUTING PATTERNS: 2009
yyA region is a net worker exporter when the number of residents living in the region who commute out for work exceeds the number of workers who live outside the region but commute into the region for employment
yyCensus data for 2009 indicates the North Central Region had a net outflow of almost 25,000 workers
yyOsage County showed a net loss of over 9,000 workers. Over 7,600 Osage County residents commuted to Tulsa County for work
yyLogan County had a net loss of almost 7,900 workers. Approximately that many Logan County residents commuted to Oklahoma County
yyAlmost 2,000 residents of the region commuted outside the state for employment
o Workers who commute just over the state line
o Long haul truck drivers
o Commercial pilots
o Petroleum workers
o Entertainers
yyOver 300 Kay County residents commuted to Kansas for employment
yyOver 450 Payne County residents commuted out of state
yyJust over 1,600 out of state residents commuted into the state for employment, nearly 1,000 of those into Kay County
yyThere were two county level exceptions to the net outflow of workers
o Payne County had a net gain of just over 900 workers
o Kay County had a net gain of just over 650 workers
Source: US Census Bureau, LEHD Program and OnTheMap http://lehdmap.did.census.gov/
Source: US Census Bureau, LEHD Program and OnTheMap http://lehdmap.did.census.gov/ APPENDIX 1 – Population Growth Trends
1990 to 2000
2000-2010
2005-2010
Total Population 2010 Census Count
Pop Change
Avg. Annual Growth
Pop Change
Avg. Annual Growth
Pop Change
Avg. Annual Growth
United States
308,745,538
31,957,510
1.2%
27,323,632
0.9%
12,992,387
0.9%
Oklahoma
3,751,351
303,922
0.9%
300,697
0.8%
218,582
1.1%
Region
280,170
18,480
0.7%
20,292
0.8%
13,371
0.8%
Grant
4,527
(535)
-1.0%
(617)
-1.2%
(129)
-0.5%
Kay
46,562
105
0.0%
(1,518)
-0.3%
483
0.2%
Lincoln
34,273
2,952
1.0%
2,193
0.7%
2,286
1.4%
Logan
41,848
4,921
1.6%
7,924
2.1%
6,449
3.4%
Noble
11,561
376
0.3%
150
0.1%
449
0.8%
Osage
47,472
2,866
0.7%
3,035
0.7%
2,520
1.1%
Pawnee
16,577
1,055
0.7%
(35)
0.0%
107
0.1%
Payne
77,350
6,740
1.1%
9,160
1.3%
1,206
0.4%
Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division
http://www.census.gov/popest/estimates.html
APPENDIX 2 – Age Groupings
Total Population 2010 Census Count
Age 0-19
Age 20-24
Age 25-54
Age 55-64
Age 65-84
Age 85 and over
United States
308,745,538
26.9%
7.0%
41.2%
11.8%
11.3%
1.8%
Oklahoma
3,751,351
27.8%
7.2%
39.8%
11.8%
11.7%
1.7%
Region
280,170
27.3%
9.2%
37.4%
12.0%
12.4%
1.7%
Grant
4,527
24.9%
4.0%
36.4%
13.5%
18.2%
3.0%
Kay
46,562
28.2%
5.6%
36.3%
12.7%
14.6%
2.4%
Lincoln
34,273
28.0%
5.0%
38.5%
13.3%
13.8%
1.5%
Logan
41,848
29.4%
6.5%
38.9%
12.5%
11.2%
1.4%
Noble
11,561
27.0%
4.6%
38.9%
12.7%
14.7%
2.0%
Osage
47,472
26.8%
4.8%
39.1%
13.9%
14.0%
1.4%
Pawnee
16,577
27.2%
4.8%
38.0%
13.8%
14.7%
1.7%
Payne
77,350
26.0%
19.4%
35.2%
9.1%
9.0%
1.4%
Note: Columns may not add exactly to 100.0% due to slight rounding error
Source: US Census Bureau 2010 Census Demographic Profiles
www.factfinder2.census.gov
APPENDIX 3 – 2000 Census Population By Race
Total Population 2000 Census Count
White Alone
Black Alone
American Indian & Alaska Native Alone
Asian Alone
Other Race Alone
More than One Race
Oklahoma
3,450,654
76.2%
7.6%
7.9%
1.4%
2.5%
4.5%
Region
259,878
81.4%
5.0%
7.4%
1.0%
4.2%
1.0%
Grant
5,144
95.3%
0.1%
2.4%
0.1%
1.3%
0.7%
Kay
48,080
84.2%
1.8%
7.5%
0.5%
4.0%
2.0%
Lincoln
32,080
86.4%
2.5%
6.6%
0.2%
3.8%
0.5%
Logan
33,924
81.6%
11.0%
2.9%
0.3%
2.9%
1.2%
Noble
11,411
86.4%
1.6%
7.6%
0.3%
3.4%
0.7%
Osage
44,437
67.0%
10.8%
14.4%
0.2%
6.8%
0.7%
Pawnee
16,612
82.3%
0.7%
12.1%
0.2%
4.4%
0.3%
Payne
68,190
84.3%
3.6%
4.6%
3.0%
3.6%
0.8%
Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 Census
www.factfinder2.census.gov
APPENDIX 4 – 2010 Census Population By Race
Total Population 2010 Census Count
White Alone
Black Alone
American Indian & Alaska Native Alone
Asian Alone
Other Race Alone
More than One Race
Oklahoma
3,751,351
72.2%
7.4%
8.6%
1.7%
4.2%
5.9%
Region
280,170
79.5%
5.0%
7.7%
1.2%
5.3%
1.4%
Grant
4,527
93.0%
0.8%
1.9%
0.2%
2.4%
1.7%
Kay
46,562
80.2%
2.1%
9.6%
0.5%
5.0%
2.6%
Lincoln
34,273
85.9%
1.8%
6.5%
0.2%
5.1%
0.6%
Logan
41,848
81.0%
9.1%
3.3%
0.5%
4.1%
2.1%
Noble
11,561
84.2%
1.8%
8.5%
0.4%
4.1%
1.0%
Osage
47,472
66.0%
11.4%
14.4%
0.3%
7.1%
0.8%
Pawnee
16,577
80.6%
0.7%
11.6%
0.3%
6.2%
0.6%
Payne
77,350
81.9%
3.6%
4.7%
3.5%
5.2%
1.1%
Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 Census
www.factfinder2.census.gov
APPENDIX 5 – Population by Hispanic Ethnicity
2000
2010
Total
Hispanic
Not Hispanic
Total
Hispanic
Not Hispanic
Oklahoma
3,450,654
179,304
3,271,350
3,751,351
332,007
3,419,344
Region
259,878
6,410
253,468
280,170
11,150
269,020
Grant
5,144
95
5,049
4,527
158
4,369
Kay
48,080
2,045
46,035
46,562
2,992
43,570
Lincoln
32,080
483
31,597
34,273
838
33,435
Logan
33,924
987
32,937
41,848
2,170
39,678
Noble
11,411
205
11,206
11,561
300
11,261
Osage
44,437
940
43,497
47,472
1,366
46,106
Pawnee
16,612
192
16,420
16,577
336
16,241
Payne
68,190
1,463
66,727
77,350
2,990
74,360
Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Census
www.factfinder2.census.gov
APPENDIX 6 – Estimated Educational Attainment for Population 25 and Over (2005-2009)
Less than HS Diploma
HS graduate, GED, or alternative
Some College
Associate Degree
Bachelor Degree
Post
Bachelor Degree
United States
Estimate
15.4%
29.3%
20.3%
7.4%
17.4%
10.1%
MOE
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Oklahoma
Estimate
15.2%
32.7%
23.0%
6.7%
15.1%
7.3%
MOE
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.2%
0.1%
Region
Estimate
13.7%
36.8%
21.8%
6.4%
13.8%
7.5%
MOE
0.6%
0.7%
0.7%
0.4%
0.5%
0.4%
Grant
Estimate
9.6%
36.6%
25.1%
5.8%
16.2%
6.8%
MOE
6.3%
3.4%
2.9%
1.4%
2.6%
1.7%
Kay
Estimate
14.5%
37.6%
20.5%
8.6%
13.1%
5.8%
MOE
1.1%
1.5%
1.2%
0.8%
0.8%
0.6%
Lincoln
Estimate
14.8%
44.7%
22.1%
4.9%
10.0%
3.5%
MOE
1.5%
1.8%
1.7%
0.7%
1.2%
0.7%
Logan
Estimate
15.0%
35.6%
23.7%
4.9%
14.8%
6.1%
MOE
1.9%
2.1%
1.9%
0.9%
1.8%
0.9%
Noble
Estimate
12.2%
40.2%
22.4%
6.3%
13.7%
5.1%
MOE
3.0%
3.4%
2.8%
1.4%
1.9%
1.9%
Osage
Estimate
12.8%
39.1%
21.9%
8.3%
11.8%
6.0%
MOE
1.2%
1.5%
1.5%
1.0%
1.1%
0.9%
Pawnee
Estimate
18.0%
39.6%
21.2%
6.4%
10.2%
4.5%
MOE
2.2%
2.6%
2.3%
1.2%
1.4%
0.9%
Payne
Estimate
11.7%
29.6%
21.1%
5.2%
18.1%
14.4%
MOE
1.2%
1.7%
1.6%
0.8%
1.4%
1.2%
Source: US Census Bureau, 2005-2009 American Community Survey 5 Year Data Set www.factfinder.census.gov
MOE= Margin of ErrorAPPENDIX 7 – Per Capita Personal Income (PCPI)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
United States
$30,318
$31,145
$31,461
$32,271
$33,881
$35,424
$37,698
$39,461
$40,674
$39,635
Oklahoma
$24,605
$26,218
$26,218
$26,909
$28,790
$30,469
$33,223
$34,539
$36,911
$35,837
Region
$21,641
$22,899
$23,202
$23,938
$25,477
$26,499
$28,736
$30,802
$33,162
$32,084
Grant
$24,605
$26,218
$26,218
$26,909
$28,790
$30,469
$33,223
$34,539
$36,911
$35,837
Kay
$24,008
$24,977
$26,164
$28,381
$32,473
$29,809
$32,199
$33,742
$39,908
$36,273
Lincoln
$22,906
$25,083
$25,185
$25,907
$28,390
$28,227
$31,490
$33,689
$37,877
$35,915
Logan
$19,333
$21,077
$21,714
$22,074
$22,455
$24,185
$26,016
$27,882
$29,476
$29,093
Noble
$22,900
$24,458
$25,805
$27,165
$29,640
$31,418
$34,679
$35,187
$37,009
$35,052
Osage
$22,139
$21,823
$21,318
$23,165
$24,708
$26,222
$27,197
$29,417
$32,077
$29,956
Pawnee
$21,097
$22,893
$23,505
$24,049
$25,649
$27,222
$30,260
$32,217
$34,330
$33,985
Payne
$20,180
$21,503
$21,748
$22,232
$23,792
$24,534
$26,968
$28,954
$30,530
$30,012
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
http://www.bea.gov/regional/reis/default.cfm?selTable=CA1-3§ion=2 APPENDIX 8 – Retail Sales Growth Rates: Communities Within The Region
Estimated Retail Growth Rates
Sorted by County
2003
to 2004
2004
to 2005
2005
to 2006
2006
to 2007
2007
to 2008
2008
to 2009
2009
to 2010
GRANT
Deer Creek
13.5%
-0.1%
-9.3%
26.9%
-7.1%
15.4%
-14.6%
Lamont
1.3%
9.3%
29.7%
-11.1%
17.5%
-1.6%
3.4%
Medford
3.3%
-1.5%
5.7%
1.3%
9.2%
0.9%
22.6%
Nash
2.2%
69.4%
-17.4%
-3.7%
4.6%
4.7%
-0.1%
Pond Creek
0.3%
5.9%
3.2%
2.1%
18.2%
8.7%
0.8%
Renfrow
80.9%
10.1%
45.2%
5.1%
26.5%
21.1%
26.2%
Wakita
4.3%
-0.1%
6.3%
-11.4%
17.0%
-7.2%
22.3%
KAY
Blackwell
0.5%
1.8%
1.1%
5.8%
8.1%
-3.6%
-1.3%
Braman
0.2%
8.7%
13.7%
13.8%
28.1%
-24.9%
44.9%
Kaw City
-4.7%
11.2%
-29.5%
11.1%
11.8%
-9.2%
-17.9%
Newkirk
1.9%
4.4%
1.6%
7.9%
4.1%
-4.6%
-3.4%
Ponca City
0.2%
3.1%
2.8%
5.5%
-0.5%
-5.5%
1.8%
Tonkawa
-5.4%
2.9%
7.2%
5.8%
1.9%
-6.5%
14.5%
LINCOLN
Agra
12.5%
-4.9%
7.1%
20.2%
0.4%
-24.5%
20.8%
Carney
-5.7%
35.1%
9.7%
20.5%
5.3%
-36.7%
-9.0%
Chandler
-0.9%
2.6%
4.8%
11.2%
21.7%
-1.9%
0.6%
Davenport
-14.4%
8.5%
8.3%
2.8%
31.2%
-27.0%
-13.2%
Kendrick
-27.5%
45.1%
23.5%
15.1%
8.9%
-19.1%
18.1%
Meeker
-12.7%
1.9%
11.5%
10.3%
-1.4%
2.9%
2.6%
Prague
6.8%
0.1%
3.4%
7.0%
14.6%
-8.6%
0.7%
Sparks
-11.5%
17.2%
30.6%
5.8%
44.8%
-1.4%
18.2%
Stroud
1.9%
8.1%
9.4%
3.4%
13.6%
-3.2%
-0.8%
Tryon
43.5%
6.6%
31.3%
6.0%
14.8%
0.4%
6.5%
Wellston
4.3%
-2.3%
4.1%
14.7%
11.6%
2.1%
-3.2%
LOGAN
Cashion
-35.5%
21.7%
24.2%
14.6%
14.0%
-18.3%
4.5% Estimated Retail Growth Rates
Sorted by County
2003
to 2004
2004
to 2005
2005
to 2006
2006
to 2007
2007
to 2008
2008
to 2009
2009
to 2010
Cimarron City
-12.7%
14.6%
49.0%
0.2%
-3.3%
-28.0%
-47.1%
Coyle
7.2%
-15.4%
14.3%
-16.5%
-15.7%
24.8%
14.9%
Crescent
2.4%
3.7%
0.7%
12.9%
16.3%
-8.8%
-15.9%
Guthrie
1.6%
4.9%
1.7%
12.1%
8.1%
0.9%
-4.0%
Langston
-32.8%
15.9%
-16.5%
6.9%
13.1%
-9.0%
20.1%
Marshall
10.3%
-27.9%
33.2%
-16.8%
52.2%
-32.4%
67.3%
Meridian
-11.3%
152.7%
-31.5%
-57.6%
17.9%
4.8%
65.2%
Mulhall
23.6%
-5.3%
0.2%
37.1%
50.4%
19.6%
-72.6%
Orlando
16.2%
-6.2%
13.7%
-15.1%
60.1%
76.1%
-22.0%
NOBLE
Billings
-2.6%
-2.3%
4.6%
2.6%
7.7%
2.6%
-3.0%
Marland
-1.4%
-2.1%
-1.2%
-9.0%
58.0%
-34.5%
5.9%
Morrison
-6.4%
10.9%
-19.6%
6.2%
24.9%
-14.3%
0.8%
Perry
4.7%
0.4%
1.7%
4.6%
-3.4%
-5.5%
5.2%
Red Rock
90.9%
8.0%
21.9%
10.1%
34.5%
-17.2%
19.8%
OSAGE
Avant
-9.7%
-7.2%
5.7%
-6.8%
11.2%
-1.4%
-11.1%
Barnsdall
16.3%
18.4%
-13.8%
-5.5%
21.9%
-4.4%
-18.9%
Burbank
-12.8%
26.5%
29.3%
38.6%
-18.2%
78.7%
-51.6%
Fairfax
10.9%
-1.9%
6.4%
0.7%
12.7%
-2.6%
-14.3%
Hominy
11.8%
12.0%
14.1%
-3.0%
16.4%
-7.4%
-2.2%
Pawhuska
0.9%
2.6%
4.5%
5.8%
5.6%
0.0%
0.6%
Prue
7.7%
8.6%
7.1%
2.7%
8.2%
2.3%
5.5%
Shidler
-4.1%
10.1%
16.7%
20.5%
-15.1%
15.3%
6.7%
Skiatook
5.1%
28.2%
15.4%
7.8%
4.0%
-3.4%
7.8%
Webbers Falls
-2.8%
5.0%
6.7%
-0.6%
2.1%
8.7%
-10.6%
Wynona
1.0%
-2.8%
3.6%
-3.9%
5.9%
3.6%
-12.6%
PAWNEE
Cleveland
0.0%
3.9%
-2.2%
9.9%
6.0%
-5.9%
5.8%
Hallett
-3.8%
-0.4%
2.6%
-16.9%
16.3%
-10.0%
-0.6%
Jennings
8.9%
36.2%
-8.9%
0.4%
41.7%
-24.8%
-10.9% Estimated Retail Growth Rates
Sorted by County
2003
to 2004
2004
to 2005
2005
to 2006
2006
to 2007
2007
to 2008
2008
to 2009
2009
to 2010
Lone Chimney
7.3%
20.6%
10.9%
0.6%
-5.5%
31.1%
9.1%
Maramec
0.2%
5.0%
9.5%
57.8%
-33.2%
5.6%
-2.0%
Pawnee
1.6%
-0.3%
9.6%
2.7%
-5.1%
-1.7%
4.8%
Ralston
16.6%
-11.1%
5.5%
15.1%
13.1%
-4.9%
30.2%
Terlton
13.1%
-30.2%
33.6%
88.2%
6.8%
-2.6%
6.0%
PAYNE
Cushing
3.1%
9.1%
5.9%
9.3%
17.4%
-7.5%
6.1%
Drumright
1.4%
6.4%
3.5%
33.9%
-10.0%
-13.0%
-3.5%
Glencoe
13.6%
-19.5%
6.5%
27.4%
-3.2%
-8.7%
0.4%
Perkins
14.9%
0.6%
17.0%
3.4%
5.4%
-7.6%
12.6%
Ripley
-1.5%
-7.3%
-7.6%
5.0%
4.9%
-0.7%
35.1%
Source: Estimates Based on Oklahoma Tax Commission Data
http://www.tax.ok.gov/nwsrls.htmlAPPENDIX 9 – Estimated Retail Sales Subject to Tax
Estimated Retail Sales Sorted By County
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
GRANT
Deer Creek
446,787
446,121
404,470
513,439
476,928
550,346
469,738
Lamont
1,310,469
1,432,664
1,858,835
1,651,956
1,941,263
1,910,581
1,975,486
Medford
6,915,983
6,815,057
7,206,191
7,299,180
7,967,360
8,037,069
9,855,648
Nash
866,275
1,467,077
1,212,503
1,167,897
1,222,104
1,279,861
1,278,349
Pond Creek
3,429,448
3,632,153
3,747,610
3,825,572
4,522,589
4,914,197
4,953,508
Renfrow
61,775
68,018
98,738
103,797
131,319
158,972
200,631
Wakita
1,355,188
1,354,014
1,439,289
1,275,780
1,492,237
1,384,121
1,692,279
KAY
Blackwell
51,028,098
51,929,196
52,525,592
55,552,549
60,071,521
57,917,759
57,164,572
Braman
1,297,106
1,409,621
1,602,647
1,823,645
2,336,514
1,753,886
2,541,285
Kaw City
1,153,104
1,281,721
903,474
1,003,936
1,121,933
1,018,754
836,054
Newkirk
11,140,811
11,636,232
11,823,142
12,756,966
13,276,447
12,667,385
12,231,360
Ponca City
324,901,988
334,813,578
344,102,192
363,198,983
361,247,802
341,359,116
347,557,085
Tonkawa
17,510,731
18,026,380
19,330,638
20,456,448
20,842,422
19,486,657
22,302,955
LINCOLN
Agra
1,557,253
1,480,889
1,585,909
1,905,972
1,914,174
1,445,219
1,746,449
Carney
1,638,876
2,214,777
2,429,198
2,927,444
3,081,633
1,951,143
1,775,706
Chandler
41,913,282
43,018,259
45,103,281
50,158,859
61,032,388
59,884,386
60,218,335
Davenport
2,755,498
2,989,244
3,235,955
3,325,478
4,361,481
3,183,949
2,763,456
Kendrick
163,123
236,770
292,504
336,548
366,632
296,692
350,417
Meeker
6,318,385
6,439,733
7,180,985
7,917,053
7,806,108
8,032,412
8,244,234
Prague
21,017,298
21,044,042
21,752,520
23,265,237
26,665,738
24,361,882
24,538,252
Sparks
181,231
212,465
277,411
293,464
424,807
418,771
495,071
Stroud
26,934,096
29,122,709
31,849,474
32,925,183
37,404,302
36,200,442
35,908,125
Tryon
683,792
728,746
956,791
1,014,664
1,164,551
1,168,644
1,244,775
Wellston
5,873,817
5,737,070
5,970,897
6,849,316
7,643,725
7,802,168
7,555,689
LOGAN
Cashion
1,914,883
2,330,243
2,894,774
3,318,141
3,782,131
3,091,619
3,232,020
Cimarron City
118,931
136,332
203,182
203,650
196,962
141,774
75,011
Coyle
1,197,739
1,013,448
1,158,612
967,612
815,835
1,018,296
1,170,359 Estimated Retail Sales Sorted By County
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Crescent
11,018,031
11,427,631
11,507,057
12,986,258
15,105,432
13,778,008
11,592,021
Guthrie
97,698,303
102,468,482
104,180,002
116,770,165
126,265,249
127,459,605
122,400,267
Langston
1,970,164
2,282,973
1,907,263
2,038,931
2,306,777
2,100,308
2,523,178
Marshall
679,112
489,826
652,272
542,624
825,830
558,122
933,530
Meridian
138,090
348,889
239,043
101,366
119,461
125,220
206,814
Mulhall
595,266
563,625
564,776
774,361
1,164,613
1,393,180
382,005
Orlando
716,332
671,837
764,029
649,038
1,039,154
1,829,569
1,427,153
NOBLE
Billings
3,612,040
3,528,300
3,690,434
3,787,229
4,079,640
4,185,273
4,059,857
Marland
424,690
415,594
410,538
373,624
590,370
386,648
409,504
Morrison
2,837,141
3,147,108
2,531,434
2,688,533
3,358,221
2,879,224
2,903,065
Perry
46,962,987
47,160,309
47,956,715
50,138,775
48,417,081
45,750,510
48,125,463
Red Rock
753,253
813,588
991,518
1,091,860
1,468,118
1,215,553
1,456,232
OSAGE
Avant
553,779
514,131
543,555
506,782
563,587
555,436
493,775
Barnsdall
6,533,051
7,737,303
6,669,983
6,300,258
7,679,131
7,339,062
5,948,802
Burbank
148,207
187,546
242,446
335,922
274,821
491,118
237,864
Fairfax
7,127,141
6,988,993
7,439,451
7,489,708
8,437,228
8,219,677
7,045,503
Hominy
13,566,012
15,198,940
17,348,955
16,832,996
19,598,811
18,156,182
17,764,822
Pawhuska
26,235,625
26,924,375
28,132,359
29,777,117
31,445,396
31,459,764
31,650,757
Prue
315,794
343,050
367,512
377,373
408,196
417,561
440,446
Shidler
1,353,964
1,490,397
1,739,615
2,096,513
1,779,102
2,050,876
2,187,592
Skiatook
52,504,603
67,320,981
77,665,656
83,737,590
87,050,836
84,061,764
90,588,726
Webbers Falls
4,921,083
5,165,290
5,509,093
5,477,716
5,593,834
6,080,533
5,433,499
Wynona
1,296,375
1,259,784
1,304,635
1,254,385
1,327,801
1,375,750
1,202,358
PAWNEE
Cleveland
35,666,323
37,069,960
36,253,355
39,838,023
42,238,820
39,747,184
42,067,231
Hallett
862,013
858,475
880,822
731,646
850,745
765,308
760,597
Jennings
1,443,107
1,966,024
1,790,654
1,797,690
2,546,479
1,915,007
1,706,677
Lone Chimney
1,961,614
2,365,762
2,623,784
2,638,344
2,494,199
3,269,750
3,568,643
Maramec
169,176
177,556
194,373
306,650
204,938
216,323
211,915
Pawnee
16,762,897
16,711,586
18,322,136
18,821,869
17,869,917
17,574,563
18,412,440
Ralston
726,272
645,926
681,186
784,122
887,070
843,166
1,097,522 Estimated Retail Sales Sorted By County
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Terlton
476,757
332,769
444,682
836,695
893,182
869,624
921,850
PAYNE
Cushing
83,647,533
91,268,386
96,624,706
105,574,318
123,986,341
114,704,701
121,727,929
Drumright
18,269,710
19,445,948
20,116,844
26,933,674
24,231,953
21,090,910
20,342,622
Glencoe
2,441,924
1,964,869
2,092,338
2,664,670
2,579,517
2,354,787
2,365,361
Perkins
17,242,661
17,343,863
20,297,113
20,988,010
22,112,511
20,426,478
22,994,116
Ripley
1,056,836
979,334
904,860
950,002
996,104
988,949
1,336,265
Stillwater
529,929,974
568,054,148
592,926,803
634,285,259
664,621,031
645,947,398
649,411,533
Yale
4,000,483
3,892,253
4,745,690
4,825,779
5,535,902
5,237,003
6,490,854
Source: Estimates Based on Oklahoma Tax Commission Data
http://www.tax.ok.gov/nwsrls.html APPENDIX 10 – Annual County Unemployment Rates
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
United States
4.0%
4.7%
5.8%
6.0%
5.5%
5.1%
4.6%
4.6%
5.8%
9.3%
9.6%
Oklahoma
3.1%
3.7%
4.8%
5.6%
5.0%
4.5%
4.1%
4.1%
3.7%
6.6%
7.1%
Region
3.1%
3.4%
4.6%
5.4%
4.9%
4.6%
4.1%
3.9%
3.8%
7.0%
7.3%
Grant
2.5%
2.8%
3.5%
3.8%
3.6%
3.7%
3.8%
3.2%
2.5%
3.9%
4.3%
Kay
4.3%
4.1%
5.8%
6.9%
6.2%
5.7%
4.9%
4.2%
3.5%
7.7%
8.7%
Lincoln
3.0%
3.9%
5.0%
5.5%
5.0%
4.8%
4.2%
4.2%
3.9%
7.3%
7.2%
Logan
2.5%
2.9%
3.5%
4.4%
4.0%
3.9%
3.8%
3.8%
3.6%
5.9%
6.4%
Noble
2.3%
3.9%
4.6%
4.4%
4.0%
3.9%
3.6%
3.4%
3.2%
8.0%
6.3%
Osage
3.2%
3.4%
5.2%
6.3%
5.4%
4.8%
4.3%
4.2%
4.1%
7.8%
8.5%
Pawnee
3.7%
4.0%
5.7%
6.9%
5.9%
5.0%
4.3%
4.5%
4.4%
8.9%
9.8%
Payne
2.5%
2.8%
3.5%
4.2%
4.0%
4.0%
3.7%
3.7%
3.9%
6.3%
6.3%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, LAUS and CPS
http://www.bls.gov/lau/#tables